GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET 2025 – KEY NOTES

🟩 1. Overall Emissions Trend

• Fossil fuel CO₂ emissions:
  • ↑ 1.1% in 2025
  • Reached record high
• Total fossil CO₂ emissions:
  • 38.1 billion tonnes (2025)

🟦 2. Total CO₂ Emissions

• Land-use emissions:
  • 4.1 billion tonnes
• Total emissions (fossil + land use):
  • Slightly lower than previous year

🟨 3. Key Drivers

• Rising global energy demand
• Decarbonisation progress:
  • Insufficient to offset demand growth

🟧 4. Carbon Sinks

• Land & ocean sinks:
  • Recovered after El Niño (2023–24)
• Impact of climate change:
  • Weakening carbon sinks
• Contribution:
  • 8% of rise in atmospheric CO₂ since 1960

🟥 5. Carbon Budget (1.5°C Target)

• Remaining budget:
  • 170 billion tonnes CO₂
• At current rate:
  • Exhausted before 2030
• Status:
  • “Virtually exhausted”

🟪 6. Atmospheric CO₂ Level

• Expected concentration:
  • 425.7 ppm (2025)
• Increase:
  • 52% above pre-industrial levels

🟫 7. Fuel-wise Emission Growth

• Coal: +0.8%
• Oil: +1%
• Natural Gas: +1.3%

🌍 8. Country-wise Trends

✈️ 9. Sectoral Trends

• International aviation:
  • +6.8% (above pre-COVID)
• Shipping:
  • Flat

🌳 10. Land Use & Forests

• Deforestation emissions:
  • ~4 billion tonnes/year (2015–24)
• Offset:
  • Re/afforestation offsets ~50%
• Trend:
  • Some tropical forests → CO₂ source

🧠 11. Long-Term Trend

• Emission growth:
  • Last decade: 0.3%/year
  • Previous decade: 1.9%/year

🌍 12. Key Observations

• 35 countries:
  • Reduced emissions while growing economy
• Clean technologies:
  • Cost-effective & reducing emissions
• Climate change:
  • Increasing impact on carbon sinks

⚡ 13. Major Conclusion

• No sustained decline in global emissions
• Global warming <1.5°C unlikely at current trends

🔥 QUICK REVISION

• 38.1 Bt CO₂ → Record high (2025)
• +1.1% growth
• 170 Bt carbon budget → <2030 exhausted
• CO₂ level: 425.7 ppm
• Key issue: Demand > Decarbonisation
• Sinks weakening → major concern

Updated - 13 Nov 2025 ; 10: 30 PM | Global Carbon Project