The United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report 2025 highlights that India recorded the highest absolute increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally during 2023–24, even though it continues to maintain the lowest per capita emissions among major economies. This dual reality places India at the centre of global climate discussions ahead of COP30.
The report indicates that the world is currently on a trajectory towards a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels, which is significantly higher than the 1.5°C target set under the Paris Agreement. Even with full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), warming is expected to remain between 2.3°C–2.5°C, indicating a substantial emissions gap. This trend suggests that current global mitigation efforts are insufficient, increasing the risk of severe climate impacts.
India added approximately 165 million tonnes of GHG emissions during 2023–24, making it the largest contributor to the increase in annual emissions during this period. While countries like China and the United States remain the top emitters in absolute terms, India’s emissions growth reflects its rapid economic expansion and rising energy demand. However, India’s per capita emissions remain the lowest among major economies, highlighting its relatively lower individual carbon footprint despite rising totals.
The increase in emissions is linked to:
At the same time, India has demonstrated strong progress in renewable energy, indicating a dual-track development pathway where sustainability goals coexist with growth imperatives.
The report notes that emissions are rising across most G20 economies, except the European Union. It also highlights a lack of political commitment globally, as only a limited number of countries submitted updated NDCs within the deadline. India’s non-submission of updated NDCs (by September 30, 2025) may subject it to increased scrutiny during the COP30 climate negotiations in Belém, Brazil.
India’s situation reflects a “climate justice dilemma”, where:
Experts have pointed out that insufficient international climate finance remains a critical constraint, as developing countries like India are expected to transition without adequate financial and technological support.
Suggested pathways include rapid renewable deployment, coal phase-down, electrification of transport, improved energy efficiency, and industrial emission controls.
The findings underline a widening global emissions gap, with India occupying a complex position as both a fast-growing economy and a key emitter with low per capita emissions. The situation calls for immediate and coordinated global action, along with enhanced climate finance and equitable burden-sharing, to ensure alignment with long-term climate goals.
Updated – 06 November 2025 ; 03:06 PM | Down to Earth