IN NEWS

Rising Terrorism and Geopolitical Competition in the Sahel Region

Introduction

The Sahel region has emerged as the world’s most dangerous hotspot for violent extremism, military coups, and geopolitical rivalry. Recent reports and analyses indicate that countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are witnessing an alarming expansion of jihadist violence linked to groups associated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The deteriorating security situation has also intensified migration towards Europe, weakened democratic institutions, and triggered renewed strategic competition involving Russia, the United States, France, and regional African actors.

Sahel as the Global Epicentre of Terrorism

Recent assessments indicate that the Sahel now accounts for a major share of global terrorism-related deaths. According to the material provided, nearly 51% of global terrorism-related deaths occurred in the Sahel in 2024.The region stretches from Senegal in the west to Eritrea in the east and lies between the Sahara Desert and the African tropics. Weak governance, poverty, ethnic tensions, climate stress, and declining state legitimacy have contributed to the rise of extremist groups.The most affected countries include:

Expansion of Jihadist Organisations

The crisis is being driven primarily by groups such as:

The reports suggest that JNIM has become one of the most powerful militant organisations in West Africa, with estimates of 5,000–6,000 fighters.The organisation has increasingly expanded into coastal West African states such as:

• Benin
• Togo
• Ghana

This reflects the geographical spread of insecurity beyond the traditional Sahel core.

Mali Crisis and Coordinated Insurgent Attacks

The situation in Mali has deteriorated significantly following coordinated attacks by jihadist and separatist groups.Recent developments highlighted:

• attacks on military installations in Bamako,
• targeting of Defence Minister Sadio Camara,
• capture of strategic towns such as Kidal,
• increasing cooperation between Tuareg separatists and jihadist groups.

The alliance between the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and JNIM demonstrates the emergence of tactical cooperation between ethnic separatist movements and extremist Islamist organisations.Experts noted that these attacks exposed:

• intelligence failures,
• limitations of Russian military support,
• fragility of military juntas,
• and the absence of effective regional counterterrorism mechanisms.

Military Coups and Democratic Backsliding

The Sahel has experienced repeated military coups since 2020.Countries affected include:

• Mali
• Burkina Faso
• Niger

Military juntas justified their takeover by claiming civilian governments had failed to control terrorism. However, extremist violence has continued to rise despite regime changes.The coups also weakened institutions such as:

• ECOWAS
• African Union
• G5 Sahel

Russia-West Geopolitical Competition in the Sahel

The region has become a major arena for geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Western countries.Following the withdrawal of French and U.S. troops:

• military juntas increasingly turned towards Russia,
• Russian mercenary forces such as the Wagner Group gained influence,
• and Moscow expanded security cooperation with Sahel governments.

The article “The Cold War Returns to the Sahel” described this development as a renewed geopolitical confrontation similar to Cold War-era proxy competition.Key developments included:

• expulsion of French troops,
• withdrawal demands against U.S. forces in Niger,
• growing Russian military presence,
• and weakening Western strategic influence.

Failure of International Counterterrorism Efforts

Several international missions have struggled to contain extremism.

Important Counterterrorism Operations

Despite large deployments, militant violence spread across the region. The withdrawal of Western missions created a security vacuum that extremist groups exploited rapidly.

Humanitarian and Migration Crisis

The conflict has generated a severe humanitarian emergency.Major consequences include:

• mass displacement,
• food insecurity,
• collapse of rural economies,
• climate-induced resource conflicts,
• and increasing migration towards Europe.

The reports mention that migration from Sahel countries to Europe increased sharply, particularly through the Canary Islands route.The crisis is also intensified by:

• droughts,
• floods,
• shrinking land resources,
• and rising temperatures in the Sahel.

Implications for Global Security

The developments in the Sahel carry major international implications:

• possibility of creation of “proto-states” under extremist control,
• expansion of global jihadist networks,
• destabilisation of West African coastal states,
• increased migration pressure on Europe,
• growth of Russia’s strategic influence in Africa,
• and weakening of democratic governance.

Experts have warned that prolonged instability may eventually transform the region into a launchpad for wider international extremist activity.

Necessary Static Part

Sahel Region

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)

G5 Sahel

MINUSMA

Wagner Group

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)

Updated – 25 September 2024 ; 12:26 AM | News Source – Reuters, Council on Foreign Relations – Center for Preventive Action,