UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 and Global Warming Trajectory

IN NEWS: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 and Global Warming Trajectory

Introduction

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in its Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target has warned that the world still remains on track for around 2.3°C–2.5°C warming during this century despite updated climate pledges under the Paris Agreement. The report highlights that the present pace of emissions reduction is insufficient to achieve the global target of limiting warming to 1.5°C or even “well below 2°C”.The report further underlines that global greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to rise, geopolitical developments are weakening climate cooperation, and many countries are failing to implement their climate commitments effectively.

ANALYSIS

UNEP’s Assessment on Global Climate Commitments

The report observed that recently updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have produced only marginal progress in reducing future warming projections.According to UNEP:

• Current commitments may still result in:
  • 2.3°C–2.5°C warming by 2100.
• Earlier estimates in the previous report suggested:
  • 2.6°C–2.8°C warming.

Thus, the apparent improvement is limited and largely influenced by:

• Methodological/accounting changes
• Revisions in emission estimation techniques
• Geopolitical developments

The report specifically noted that:

• Nearly one-third of the apparent reduction in projected warming is due to accounting adjustments rather than actual emission reductions.

Concern over Withdrawal of the United States

UNEP highlighted that the proposed withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement in January 2026 may offset nearly:

• 0.1°C of the projected improvement.

This reflects the importance of major emitters in global climate governance.

Rising Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The report recorded a sharp rise in emissions during 2024.

This demonstrates that despite climate negotiations and technological progress, actual emissions continue to increase globally.

Limited Participation in Updated NDC Submissions

The report pointed out weak participation by member countries in submitting updated climate pledges.

This indicates that a substantial proportion of global emitters are yet to submit updated climate commitments.

Gap Between Current Commitments and Required Action

UNEP identified a major implementation gap.

Even if all current NDCs are fully implemented:

• Emissions in 2035 would decline by only:
  • 15% below 2019 levels

However, to remain within the 1.5°C pathway:

• Emissions must decline by:
  • 55% below 2019 levels by 2035

Thus, the world remains significantly off-track from climate goals.

Overshoot of 1.5°C Now Highly Likely

The report warned that:

• Global temperatures are now very likely to exceed 1.5°C within the next decade.

However, UNEP emphasized that:

• The objective now should be to:
  • Minimise the duration and scale of overshoot.

The report noted that:

• Every fraction of temperature reduction matters because it reduces:
  • Climate disasters
  • Economic losses
  • Health impacts
  • Damage to vulnerable communities

It also reduces dependence on:

• Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies, which remain costly and uncertain.

Role of the G20 Countries

UNEP stressed the critical role of the G20 bloc.

Although:

• Seven G20 countries submitted updated NDCs,
  the bloc as a whole remains inadequate in achieving required emission reductions.

Positive Factors Highlighted by UNEP

Despite concerns, the report also pointed towards some enabling conditions:

Rapid decline in renewable energy costs

Especially:

• Solar energy
• Wind energy

Technological readiness

Existing technologies can support:

• Faster decarbonisation
• Cleaner energy transition
• Climate resilience

Potential co-benefits of climate action

UNEP stated that stronger climate action can generate:

• Faster economic growth
• Employment generation
• Better public health
• Energy security
• Long-term resilience

Recommendations of UNEP

To bridge the emissions gap, UNEP recommended:

Institutional and Policy Reforms

• Removal of governance barriers
• Stronger institutional coordination
• Technical capacity enhancement

Financial Support

• Massive increase in:
  • Climate finance
  • Technology transfer
  • Technical assistance to developing countries

Reforming Global Financial Architecture

• Redesign of international financial systems to unlock:
  • Affordable climate finance
  • Green investments
  • Adaptation support

Broader Implications

The report reinforces several important concerns:

Climate Governance Challenges

• Weak compliance mechanisms under global climate agreements
• Geopolitical fragmentation affecting cooperation

Equity Concerns

Developing countries continue demanding:

• Climate justice
• Historical responsibility recognition
• Financial and technological support

Increasing Climate Vulnerability

Higher warming trajectories may intensify:

• Heatwaves
• Floods
• Sea-level rise
• Biodiversity loss
• Food insecurity

NECESSARY STATIC PART

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Emissions Gap Report

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

Under the Paris Agreement, countries submit:

• National climate action plans
• Emission reduction targets
• Adaptation strategies

These are periodically updated to enhance climate ambition.

Paris Agreement

Updated - 04 November 2025 ; 04:07 PM | Down to Earth