Total Fertility Rate remains constant at 2.0 in 2021: report
In News:
The Sample Registration System (SRS) Report 2021, released by the Registrar General of India (RGI), shows that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has remained constant at 2.0 — below the replacement level fertility (2.1) — indicating India has effectively achieved population stabilization.
Key Findings:
| Indicator | Findings (SRS 2021) |
|---|---|
| Total Fertility Rate (TFR) | 2.0 (same as 2020) |
| Replacement Level | 2.1 |
| Highest TFR | Bihar – 3.0 |
| Lowest TFR | Delhi & West Bengal – 1.4 |
| Mean age at marriage (females) | 22.5 years (up from 19.3 years in 1990) |
| 0–14 years age group | Declined from 41.2% (1971) → 24.8% (2021) |
| Economically active population (15–59 yrs) | Increased from 53.4% → 66.2% |
| Elderly (60+) | Increased from 6% → 9% |
| States with highest elderly % | Kerala (14.4%), Tamil Nadu (12.9%), Himachal Pradesh (12.3%) |
| States with lowest elderly % | Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7.0%), Delhi (7.1%) |
| Survey Coverage | 8,842 sample units, ~84 lakh population |
Analysis:
1. Demographic Transition:
- India has entered Stage 3 (Late Expanding) of the Demographic Transition Model, with low birth and declining death rates.
- Many southern and western states have reached below-replacement fertility, while parts of northern and eastern India (like Bihar, UP) remain higher.
2. Implications for India:
Economic:
- Growing working-age population (15–59 years) = Demographic Dividend, but only if supported by jobs, skill development, and gender inclusion.
- Rising elderly population signals the need for pension reforms, healthcare infrastructure, and social security expansion.
Social:
- Increasing mean age of marriage for females indicates better education and empowerment.
- However, regional disparity persists — Bihar’s high TFR points to lagging social development indicators.
Health & Policy:
- India moving towards population stabilization, reducing pressure on resources.
- But “ageing” challenges are emerging — similar to Japan and Europe, in the long run.
3. Policy Context:
- National Population Policy (2000) aimed to achieve replacement-level fertility by 2010 — now achieved nationally.
- The Finance Minister (2024 interim budget) announced a High-Powered Committee on population and demographic challenges, yet to be constituted.
- Findings highlight the need for state-specific family planning and elder-care strategies.
Updated - May 11, 2025 11:29 pm | The Hindu
Population Stabilization Total Fertility Rate Sample Registration System Registrar General of India Demographic Transition Replacement Level Fertility Ageing Population Demographic Dividend National Population Policy 2000 Health Indicators Women Empowerment Mean Age at Marriage Fertility Rate in India Bihar TFR Kerala Elderly Population Census of India Social Development Population Policy Economic Survey Government Reports UPSC Prelims 2025 UPSC Mains GS Paper 1 GS Paper 2 Social Justice GS Paper 3 Economy